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Glossary · depegging-risk

Liquidation Cascade

depegging-risk Intermediate

30-Second Version · For the impatient
A liquidation cascade occurs when market declines trigger the first batch of position liquidations, and the liquidation actions themselves further push down asset prices, causing more positions to hit their liquidation thresholds — creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral. This is the most dangerous systemic risk for crypto-collateralized stablecoins (like DAI/USDS) — not how much the market itself falls, but how the liquidation mechanism 'amplifies' the decline far beyond what fundamentals justify, potentially plunging the entire protocol into a bad debt crisis.
Full Explanation +
01 · What is this?

How is a liquidation cascade different from ordinary liquidation? Isn't liquidation supposed to be a protocol protection mechanism?

You're right — liquidation is a protection mechanism. The problem is when the 'volume' of liquidation exceeds what the market can absorb, the protection mechanism becomes a damage amplifier instead.

Ordinary liquidation (normal market): ETH steadily declines 5-10% per day, liquidating a batch of positions. These positions are unhurriedly bid on by liquidators, ETH enters the market and is gradually absorbed, with limited overall market impact. The protocol is safe, and your position (if collateral ratio is adequate) is unaffected.

Liquidation cascade (extreme market): ETH drops 40% in 3 hours, thousands of positions simultaneously hit liquidation thresholds, massive volumes of ETH flood the market at once. Liquidators can't absorb everything even at full capacity — this either drives ETH even lower (triggering more liquidations), or insufficient liquidators cause the protocol to accumulate bad debt.

Essential difference: Single liquidation is 'surgery'; liquidation cascade is 'organ rejection' — the same mechanism produces opposite effects at different scales.

This is why MakerDAO after 2020's Black Thursday heavily strengthened liquidation incentives, introduced Liquidation 2.0 (Dutch auction), and required higher liquidation buffers — the historical lesson isn't that the liquidation mechanism is broken, but that when market crash speed exceeds the mechanism's design limits, more safety cushion is needed.

02 · Why does it exist?

What exactly happened on 2020's Black Thursday? Why didn't MakerDAO prevent this problem in advance?

On March 12, 2020, crypto markets crashed sharply amid global financial market panic triggered by COVID-19. ETH fell from approximately $196 to $88 within 24 hours, a decline exceeding 55%.

What specifically happened: ETH rapidly fell through the liquidation lines of large numbers of MakerDAO CDPs (Collateralized Debt Positions). The protocol started triggering Liquidation Auctions — which should have worked as: liquidators bid to buy ETH, more bidders push prices higher, and Maker protocol recovers more funds.

Where the problem lay: Ethereum's network suffered severe congestion amid panic selling, with Gas fees surging to 10-20x normal levels. Many liquidators' (arbitrage bots') bidding transactions couldn't get on-chain, or by the time they did the liquidation had expired. Result: some liquidation auctions settled at '$0 bids' — meaning someone obtained ETH that should have been worth hundreds of dollars at near-zero prices.

Final consequences: MakerDAO accumulated approximately $3.7M in Surplus Deficit (protocol owed funds). MakerDAO's community voted in emergency to issue new MKR tokens, auctioned them on the market, and used the proceeds to fill the gap.

Why it wasn't prevented: At the time, MakerDAO's liquidation system (Liquidation 1.0) used English auctions (highest bidder wins), assuming liquidators would actively bid. Under extreme network congestion, this assumption failed. Afterward, MakerDAO upgraded to Liquidation 2.0 (Dutch auction — price starts high and descends, first acceptor wins), substantially improving the liquidation system's resilience.

03 · How does it affect your decisions?

If I'm a liquidator, is a liquidation cascade an opportunity or a risk for me?

Both — and the risk is often underestimated.

Opportunity side: During a liquidation cascade, large amounts of collateral enter the market at discounted prices. If you have sufficient liquidity and can front-bid during network congestion, you can earn enormous arbitrage returns in a very short time — this is why some liquidation bot developers publicly reported massive profits after Black Thursday.

Risk side:

  • Gas fee competition: Liquidation cascades often coincide with network congestion and surging Gas fees. If competitors (other MEV bots) bid higher Gas fees, your transactions get queued lower — by the time yours lands, liquidations may already be gone.
  • Collateral holding risk: You bought discounted ETH, but ETH may continue falling (during liquidation cascades there's often continued downward pressure). If you can't immediately sell or hedge, your liquidation profit may be eaten by subsequent ETH declines.
  • Liquidity risk: During cascades, exchange liquidity may also be shrinking — you may be unable to quickly sell your acquired ETH.

Biggest risk: During liquidation cascades, those who earn the most are typically professional institutions with pre-built infrastructure (low-latency nodes, high Gas priority transactions, automated liquidation strategies). Individual investors participating ad-hoc in liquidation competition are unlikely to outcompete these institutions, and may end up buying ETH that continues to fall during the market crash.

04 · What should you do?

If the market starts showing signs of a liquidation cascade, what can I do immediately?

Emergency action checklist in priority order:

Execute immediately (first 15 minutes):

  1. Log into your MakerDAO/Aave account, confirm current collateral ratio and distance to liquidation line
  2. If collateral ratio is below 180%, immediately add collateral or partially repay (directly in the protocol interface)
  3. Open DeFiSaver or Instadapp, confirm automated protection is active (if you set it up previously)

Within your available action window (30-60 minutes): 4. If you have idle USDC or ETH, inject collateral directly into your MakerDAO Vault to raise the ratio 5. Or repay some USDS to the protocol (reducing liabilities), which also raises collateral ratio — faster if you have excess USDS on hand 6. If your position is highly leveraged and you can't add collateral, consider proactively closing part of your position (though there's a loss, it's better than forced liquidation's typical 5-15% discount penalty)

After the chaos subsides: 7. Analyze this risk event: was your collateral ratio buffer sufficient? Did automated protection trigger in time? Systematically raise future safety thresholds.

Core principle of prevention over response: In 99% of cases, setting adequate buffer (200%+) and automated protection during normal markets is far more effective than scrambling during a market crash.

Real-World Example +

March 2020 Black Thursday: The Most Severe Liquidation Cascade in DeFi History

On March 12, 2020, global financial markets were violently shaken by COVID-19 pandemic panic, and crypto markets were caught in the fallout. This day became the most important stress test in DeFi history.

Timeline:

  • March 12, early morning: ETH began sharp decline from $196, BTC fell from $7,900 to $5,600.
  • 8-12 AM UTC: ETH fell below $130, triggering massive MakerDAO liquidations. Ethereum network suffered severe congestion from panic transactions, Gas fees surging from normal 10-20 Gwei to 200-300 Gwei.
  • Liquidation system fails: Liquidation bots, calculating Gas costs, found costs exceeding profits and largely abandoned bids. Some liquidation auctions settled with no competition, at minimal or $0 bids.
  • Result: MakerDAO accumulated approximately $3.7M in Surplus Deficit. Protocol-held USDC and stability fee reserves were insufficient to fill the gap.

Community response:

  • March 16: MakerDAO community held emergency governance vote, deciding to issue new MKR tokens to fill the bad debt.
  • Auction ran for 2 days, selling approximately 20,980 MKR (at ~$196/MKR), raising approximately $4M, successfully filling the gap.
  • Afterward, MakerDAO upgraded to Liquidation 2.0 (Dutch auction), increased liquidation buffers, and built a larger Surplus Buffer.

What this event taught DeFi: Liquidation system design must account for extreme network congestion scenarios; liquidation incentives must be high enough to cover extreme Gas fee environments; Surplus Buffer isn't optional but a necessary safety cushion. These improvements allowed MakerDAO to safely weather multiple subsequent market crashes (including the 2022 Luna collapse and FTX collapse) without similar bad debt events.

Diagram
Liquidation Cascade: Self-Reinforcing Downward SpiralA flowchart showing the cascade mechanism: ETH price drops → positions hit liquidation line → protocol auctions ETH collateral → large ETH sell pressure enters Liquidation Cascade: The Self-Reinforcing SpiralETH Price Dropse.g. $3,000 → $2,800Positions Hit Liquidation LineCollateral ratio falls below thresholdProtocol Auctions ETHLarge volume ETH floods marketETH Price Drops FurtherSell pressure overwhelms buyersLOOPCascaderepeatsThree Cascade Triggers① Market SpeedETH falls 30%+ in hoursLiquidations can't keep pace② Gas CongestionGas spikes → no biddersZero-bid liquidations occur③ Concentrated CollateralAll ETH collateral drops at onceYour Defense✓ Maintain 200-250% collateral ratio✓ Set DeFiSaver automation alerts✓ Use major liquid collateral (ETH/WBTC)Protocol Defenses• High liquidation buffer (145%+)• Progressive/batch liquidation• Dutch auction (Liq 2.0)• Surplus Buffer (bad debt pool)• Circuit breakers (pause in extremis)• MKR backstop (last resort)Stablecoin Bible · stablecoin-bible.com
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Common Misconceptions +
✕ Misconception 1
× Misconception 1: 'As long as my collateral ratio is above the liquidation line, my position is safe.' During liquidation cascades, markets can crash 30-50% in 1-2 hours, dropping your collateral ratio from 'safe 160%' through the 130% liquidation line instantly — and network congestion means you can't add collateral in time. Real safety means having adequate buffer under any market conditions — not 'above the liquidation line,' but 'even if markets crash 50% in 24 hours, my collateral ratio remains above the liquidation line.' The 200-250% target is based exactly on this logic.
✕ Misconception 2
× Misconception 2: 'Liquidation cascades only affect DeFi protocols; USDC or USDT holders are unaffected.' Directly holding USDC or USDT indeed doesn't expose you to liquidation cascades (since they have no collateral liquidation mechanism). But if you've deposited USDC into Aave as a lender, liquidation cascades causing mass borrower defaults simultaneously can affect Aave's bad debt situation, indirectly impacting lenders. More directly: liquidation cascades often simultaneously trigger market liquidity exhaustion — all DEX and CEX liquidity shrinks at once, meaning when you try to swap USDC for other stablecoins or exit positions, you may face far higher slippage than normal markets.
The Missing Link +
Direct Impact

Liquidation Efficiency vs Liquidation Robustness: The Fundamental Protocol Design Trade-Off

Liquidation system design faces a fundamental trade-off: faster, more aggressive liquidation versus more robust but slower liquidation?

Aggressive liquidation (fast): Set lower liquidation lines (e.g. 110%), liquidating large positions immediately when ratio is hit. Advantage: very low bad debt risk (strong protocol protection); disadvantage: users' collateral easily liquidated during brief market fluctuations, poor user experience, potentially discouraging many reasonable borrowing activities.

Conservative liquidation (robust): Set higher liquidation lines (e.g. 145-150%) and only liquidate in batches, giving markets time to absorb. Advantage: user positions less likely to be liquidated during normal volatility; disadvantage: during extreme crashes, the protocol may already be in bad debt before liquidation can complete.

Liquidation 2.0 (Dutch auction) compromise: MakerDAO's Dutch auction starts from high discounts and gradually reduces them until someone accepts. This lets liquidators flexibly choose when to bid based on their costs — more resilient under network congestion than English auctions (bidding up from low price). Even when Gas fees are high, the Dutch auction structure can still attract liquidators to act when economics favor them.

Meaning for you: There's no perfect liquidation design, only trade-offs with different advantages under different market stress conditions. The best defense you can mount is to always keep your collateral ratio far above protocol requirements, ensuring that whatever challenges the protocol's liquidation mechanism faces, your position doesn't need to rely on it.

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