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How Algorithmic Stablecoins Try to Hold $1: The Mint-and-Burn Loop — and Why Once Confidence Breaks There Is No Floor

30-Second Version · For the impatient
The algorithmic stablecoin’s $1 floor was never an external asset — it was people’s willingness to believe it would return to $1. When confidence broke, the floor vanished. That is the lesson Terra/UST taught the world.

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You know how USDT holds $1 — dollar deposits and short-term Treasuries behind it. You know how DAI holds $1 — overcollateralized ETH. Algorithmic stablecoins are different: there is no external asset behind them whatsoever. They rely purely on a mechanism of automatic minting or burning when the price drifts, trying to hold $1 through code logic alone. The mechanism works when markets are calm, but it contains a fatal design flaw that produced one of the largest collapses in crypto history in 2022.

Two main designs: dual-token mint-burn vs elastic supply

Algorithmic stablecoins have two main designs. The first is the dual-token model (example: UST and LUNA): the system has two tokens, one stablecoin (UST) and one governance token (LUNA). The rules are simple: when UST rises above $1, anyone can burn $1-worth of LUNA to mint one new UST and sell it, pushing UST back to $1; when UST falls below $1, anyone can burn one UST in exchange for $1-worth of LUNA, buying UST back toward $1. The second is the elastic supply model (example: Ampleforth AMPL): only one token, but the protocol adjusts every holder's balance daily — when price is high it prints coins to dilute it, when low it reclaims coins from holders. Your balance floats daily, though theoretically your share is unchanged.

Why “confidence” is the only floor — and the most fragile one

The dual-token model has one premise: arbitrageurs, when UST falls below $1, are willing to burn UST and accept an equivalent of LUNA. That willingness depends on believing “I can sell that LUNA for $1 later.” But in panic, the problem emerges: mass UST burns → system mints massive new LUNA → LUNA supply surges, price collapses → the LUNA received for burning one UST is worth less and less → arbitrage loses its appeal → no one keeps burning → UST keeps falling. This positive-feedback death spiral played out in the Terra collapse of May 2022. Within days, UST fell from $1 to near zero; LUNA's market cap evaporated from a peak of roughly $40B; hundreds of thousands of people were wiped out. The root cause was single: the algorithmic stablecoin's “$1 floor” was never an external asset — it was people's willingness to believe it would return to $1. When confidence broke, the floor vanished.

What survived: Frax's hybrid approach

The failure of pure-algo models pushed the industry toward hybrids. Frax's design uses partial fiat collateral plus a partial algorithmic mechanism, automatically adjusting the collateral ratio based on market confidence in the protocol — less collateral when confidence is high, more when it's low. This is far more robust than pure-algo because there's always some real-asset buffer. But even a hybrid doesn't fully escape the circular dependency of “the collateral ratio itself depends on market confidence.” Industry consensus has converged: a purely algorithmic stablecoin relying on no external assets has no capacity for self-repair in large-scale panic.

What this means for your money

To tell whether a stablecoin is algorithmic, ask one question: if everyone tried to redeem tomorrow, are there enough external assets to give every holder real $1? If the answer is “it's backed by the market cap of another token,” it's algorithmic, and the death-spiral risk is real. No matter how high the yield or APY, you're pricing confidence risk. This doesn't mean every algorithmic design is a scam, but after Terra, the healthy question is: “what is actually behind your $1?” — not “what's your APY?”

Diagram
Algorithmic Stablecoin Mint-Burn Loop and Death Spiral (UST/LUNA Model)雙代幣鑄銷循環+死亡螺旋圖:上半部顯示正常狀態下的膨脹機制(幣價>$1→銷毀 LUNA 鑄 UST→價格下壓)與收縮機制(幣價<$1→銷毀 UST 換 LUNA→價格上托)的雙向平衡;下半部紅色區域標示信心崩潰時的死亡螺旋三步驟(UST 崩潰→大量鑄出 LUNA→LUNA 歸零→UST 回 $0),底部說明關鍵洞見:無Algorithmic Stablecoin: Expansion, Contraction, and Death SpiralTwo-token model (e.g. UST/LUNA) · peg held by mint/burn incentives, not external reservesNormal State: incentives keep price near $1Price > $1 → EXPANSIONBurn $1 of LUNA → mint 1 new USTNew UST supply ↑ → price pushed back to $1LUNA supply ↓ → LUNA price benefitsPrice < $1 → CONTRACTIONBurn 1 UST → mint $1 of LUNAUST supply ↓ → price pushed back to $1LUNA supply ↑ → LUNA price diluted⚠ When confidence breaks: the death spiral1. UST crashesSell panic → price fallsbelow $12. Burn UST → mint LUNAMassive new LUNAsupply created3. LUNA collapsesDilution → LUNA worthless→ 1 UST = near $0Key insight: with no external assets, the “$1 floor” exists only while confidence holds — once it breaks, there is no floorStablecoin Bible · stablecoin-bible.com
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